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A now-famous study calculated in 2003 that at least 166,000 annual deaths and 5.5 million disability-adjusted life years from malnutrition, diarrheal disease, malaria, floods, and cardiovascular diseases might already be attributable to anthropogenic climate change 1. These estimates helped set one of the first baselines on the gravity of climate injustice: developed countries experience less than 0.15% of a global health burden for which they are largely responsible But today, these estimates-and the data and methods that powered them-are increasingly out-of-date. The planet is now 1.2C warmer than pre-industrial temperatures, with a roughly 50% chance of passing 1.5C in the next half-decade, and the accelerating impact on human health has been conspicuous. Despite this, sources like the World Health Organization (WHO) are still forced to rely on these outdated estimates: compared to the hundreds of studies that project future climate risks, relatively little is known about the real-time impacts of climate change on human health.
Carlson et al. (Thu,) studied this question.