What question did this study set out to answer?

The aim is to validate the CDN-196 predictions using a frozen-switch holdout approach.

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June 14, 2026Open Access

CDN-197: The Frozen Switch Holds

Key Points

The aim is to validate the CDN-196 predictions using a frozen-switch holdout approach.
Executed the pre-registered delta=0.09, xi=23.04 branch for CDN-197.
Applied a CDN-179-style fine-grid asymptotic floor fit.
Evaluated the theta series for monotonicity and velocity peaks.
Obtained a frozen prediction of eps_inf = 0.029910 with a tolerance of 0.006.
Achieved an asymptotic floor fit result of eps_inf = 0.028162, with a signed error of -0.001748.
Demonstrated R2 value of 0.997656, indicating high accuracy in the model.

Abstract

CDN-197 executes the CDN-196 pre-registered delta=0. 09, xi=23. 04 branch as a frozen-switch holdout. The frozen prediction was epsᵢnf = 0. 029910 with tolerance 0. 006. A CDN-179-style fine-grid asymptotic floor fit gives epsᵢnf = 0. 028162, signed error -0. 001748, and floor-model R2 = 0. 997656. The theta series is monotone and all velocity peaks are interior. Thus the frozen switch passes this new numerical holdout, while the analytic derivation of the crossing remains separate.

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Cite This Study

Nicky Joseph Hubertus Catharina Hacquier (Fri,) studied this question.

synapsesocial.com/papers/6a2e46dbb1cc60ccdea8b7ac https://doi.org/https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.20662975

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