This study presents the first vessel-level quantitative analysis of the crude-oil shadow fleet, applying binary GLM, ordered logistic, and ridge-penalised regression to 654 tankers classified by S the ridge logistic model yields a cross-validated AUC of 0.937. Marginal effects from the ordered logit provide directly usable probabilistic risk differentials for each governance attribute. Findings support governance-based screening frameworks over traditional size-anchored instruments for maritime sanctions compliance.
Polemis et al. (Fri,) studied this question.
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