What question did this study set out to answer?

This research aims to assess the performance of CDN-203 in testing a new source-side branch and its implications on prediction accuracy.

June 15, 2026Open Access

CDN-203: The Source Side Breaks

Key Points

This research aims to assess the performance of CDN-203 in testing a new source-side branch and its implications on prediction accuracy.
Tested below-crossing source-side branch at delta=0.07 and xi=17.92.
Utilized a fine-grid asymptotic floor fit over theta values ranging from 5 to 60.
Analyzed velocity peaks and error metrics to evaluate source-side margin performance.
CDN-196 source prediction yielded eps_inf = 0.011897 with a tolerance of 0.006.
Extended analysis showed eps_inf = 0.031079 with a signed error of +0.019182 and R2 value of 0.999895.
Significant findings indicate that peak velocities are interior, suggesting failure in the claim-boundary event.

Abstract

CDN-203 tests a new below-crossing source-side branch at delta=0. 07, xi=17. 92. The frozen CDN-196 source prediction was epsᵢnf = 0. 011897 with tolerance 0. 006. An extended CDN-179-style fine-grid asymptotic floor fit over theta=5 through 60 gives epsᵢnf = 0. 031079, signed error +0. 019182, and floor-model R2 = 0. 999895. The theta series is monotone and all velocity peaks are interior, so the source-side margin fails as a claim-boundary event rather than a numerical edge artifact.

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