Traffic load modelling and factors influencing the accuracy of predicted extremes

Design and assessment of highway bridges requires accurate prediction of the extreme load effects expected during the proposed or remaining life of the structure. Traditionally these effects are calculated using conservative codified deterministic loading models. While this conservatism is relatively insignificant in design, it may be critical in assessment. Advances in weigh-in-motion (WIM) technology, i.e., the process of weighing trucks travelling at full highway speeds, have increased the availability of accurate and unbiased site-specific traffic records. Assessments performed using WIM data are generally accepted as less conservative than those performed using generalized codified loading models. This paper briefly describes traffic simulation using WIM statistics. The implications of the accuracy of the recorded data and the duration of recording and of the sensitivity of the extreme to the method of prediction are investigated. Traffic evolution with time is also explored. The conclusions are of interest to engineers performing assessment of existing bridges.Key words: bridge, load effects, characteristic values, simulation, traffic flow, Monte Carlo, weigh-in-motion.