“Choosing” instability: Differential inclusion of refugee-migrants under a multilayered migration regime in Mexico

Mexico, long regarded as a “transit country” for migrants and refugees, has expanded its asylum system alongside intensified migration enforcement under the externalization of US border control. This paper examines how migrants and refugees are incorporated into Mexican society under a multilayered migration regime characterized by uncertainty. Focusing on those who refrain from regularization through the asylum system and remain in irregular status, the study explores how differentiated forms of inclusion are produced under such conditions. The findings show that migrants make decisions regarding legal status while considering possible effects on future mobility, including asylum claims in the US and return to their countries of origin. Under these conditions, undocumented status may become a conditionally rational “choice,” as migrants project imagined future mobility onto an uncertain present. While some gain access to more stable employment and welfare through refugee recognition, others become increasingly exposed to exploitation and marginalization.