Qatar's LNG exports: Advancing efficiency in electricity generation and reducing carbon emissions in the global energy transition

This study examines the role of Qatari liquefied natural gas (LNG) exports in the global energy transition, focusing on efficiency improvements in electricity generation and end-use emissions reductions. Using a panel data econometric approach, the study empirically assesses the impact of Qatari LNG on power generation efficiency across importing countries. Additionally, a counterfactual scenario framework is employed to quantify the end-use emissions reductions achieved through the substitution of coal and oil with LNG. Findings reveal that Qatari LNG has significantly improved efficiency in thermal electricity generation across importing countries, although diminishing marginal returns emerge at higher LNG penetration levels. Regarding end-use emissions reductions, Qatari LNG exports have cumulatively avoided 3525. 66 Mt CO 2 between 1997 and 2022, equivalent to 10. 08 % of global energy-related CO 2 emissions in 2022. Over the past decade, annual emissions reductions from Qatari LNG have stabilised at about 234. 61 Mt CO 2, surpassing the total energy-related emissions of major economies such as Spain and the Netherlands in 2022. These reductions correspond to an estimated annual global environmental benefit of 40. 95 billion. These findings highlight the critical role of Qatari LNG exports to efficiency enhancements and emissions reductions, reinforcing its role in advancing decarbonization across diverse power systems. However, the results underscore the limitations of LNG in long-term sustainability as efficiency gains plateau and continued reliance on fossil fuels may induce carbon lock-in. While Qatari LNG provides a crucial transition pathway, its role should be complemented by accelerated investments in renewables and carbon abatement technologies. • Qatari LNG exports enhance power generation efficiency across importing countries. • End-use emissions reductions from Qatari LNG total 3525. 66 MtCO 2 (1997–2022). • Annual avoided emissions exceed total energy-related emissions of major economies. • A unit increase in LNG share boosts power generation efficiency by up to 0. 213 %. • Findings highlight LNG's role in decarbonization while emphasizing long-term limitations.