NOAA Storm Prediction Center

Recent papers from NOAA Storm Prediction Center

1. Impacts of Extratropical Transition on Tropical Cyclone TornadoesMonthly Weather Review · 2025
2. The Sensitivity of Severe Convective Storm Mode to Updraft Initiation Morphology Across Large-scale Environments2025
3. What Defines a Relatively Normal Tornado Day? Exploring the Relative Risk of Tornadoes Using Practically Perfect Hindcasts for All U.S. Tornado Days from 1950 to 2021Weather and Forecasting · 2025
4. Evaluation of CAPS Convection-Allowing FV3-LAM Ensembles during the 2022 HWT Spring Forecasting Experiment to Inform the Design of the Rapid Refresh Forecast System (RRFS)Weather and Forecasting · 2025
5. Leveraging Coproduction to Bridge Research and Operations in Operational MeteorologyWeather and Forecasting · 2025
6. Investigating How NWS Meteorologists, Emergency Managers, and the Public Interpret Conditional Intensity Forecasts for Severe WeatherWeather and Forecasting · 2025
7. An Assessment of How Domain Experts Evaluate Machine Learning in Operational MeteorologyWeather and Forecasting · 2025
8. Severe Weather Verification of an FV3-LAM Regional Ensemble during the 2022 NOAA Hazardous Weather Testbed Spring Forecasting ExperimentWeather and Forecasting · 2025
9. A Red Flag Threat Index Based on the Real-Time Mesoscale Analysis for Use in the Warn-on-Forecast SystemBulletin of the American Meteorological Society · 2024
10. Impacts of sampling and storm-motion estimates on RUC/RAP-based discriminations of nontornadic and tornadic supercell environmentsWeather and Forecasting · 2024
11. Physical, social, and biological attributes for improved understanding and prediction of wildfires: FPA FOD-Attributes datasetEarth system science data · 2024
12. Retrospective Demonstrations of an Integrated Team Approach to Fire Warnings for Western United States Wildfire DisastersJournal of Operational Meteorology · 2024
13. Observed relationships between supercell mesocyclone intensity and evolution, background environmental characteristics, and cell mergersMonthly Weather Review · 2024
14. Exploring the Usefulness of Machine Learning Severe Weather Guidance in the Warn-on-Forecast System: Results from the 2022 NOAA Hazardous Weather Testbed Spring Forecasting ExperimentWeather and Forecasting · 2024
15. Investigating the Near-Surface Wind Fields of Downbursts using a Series of High-Resolution Idealized SimulationsWeather and Forecasting · 2024
16. Part 2: Lessons Learned from Predicting Wildfire Occurrence for CONUS Using Deep Learning and Fire Weather VariablesArtificial Intelligence for the Earth Systems · 2024
17. Part 1: Improving Wildfire Occurrence Prediction for CONUS Using Deep Learning and Fire Weather VariablesArtificial Intelligence for the Earth Systems · 2024
18. A Comprehensive Analysis of the Spatial and Seasonal Shifts in Tornado Activity in the United StatesJournal of Applied Meteorology and Climatology · 2024
19. The Tornado Archive: Compiling and Visualizing a Worldwide, Digitized Tornado DatabaseBulletin of the American Meteorological Society · 2024
20. Comparison of Tornado Damage Characteristics to Low-Altitude WSR-88D Radar Observations and Implications for Tornado Intensity EstimationMonthly Weather Review · 2024