Research of Changes in the Power of Car Flow at the Shutting Station During the Period of Military Actions

It is impossible to solve the problem of improving the system of organizing car flows in trains at the current level of information support without creating an information and management system that will integrate into a single information and computing space the most important optimization tasks covering all levels of managing the process of freight transportation on railway transport, such as such as the calculation of the routing of car flows from loaded and empty cars, the calculation of the plan for the formation of freight trains at the training ground of the main technical stations, the calculation of the plan for the formation of local trains in the areas of local work, and the construction of adjusted operational plans for the operation of stations. The aggression of the Russian Federation against Ukraine fundamentally changed the system of railway transport of Ukraine. The volume of cargo transportation by rail transport during military operations in the east of Ukraine decreased by 37% in 2022, but already in 2023, an increase in the transportation of some types of cargo began, in particular, grain cargo, mineral construction materials, dangerous bulk cargoes, military equipment. Transportation of goods by railways of Ukraine, especially during military operations, is not carried out evenly over a long period of time and has fluctuations in the capacity of car flows. The updated directions of their tracking, which depend on the technical condition of the railway infrastructure for the current period, lead to a change in the direction of tracking of car flows and, as a consequence, their organization into trains according to the formation plan at technical stations. The conducted studies established that the capacities of car flows are random values, therefore it is advisable to use mathematical statistics methods for their description, and modeling methods for forecasting work with them. Those car flows that arrive at the sorting station most of all fall under the geometric law of distribution of a random variable depending on the power of the direction of arrival, which has a significant impact on the accumulation parameter at the station. Fluctuations in the capacity of car flows are quite significant and depend on a sufficiently large number of factors. For the operational planning of the work of sorting stations, it is necessary to take the characteristics of the current state or a sample of data for short periods (a decade, a week), that is, it is necessary to constantly analyze the data from the ASK of the VP UZ - there is, therefore, a study of the capacity of car flows in the technical station during the period of changing their directions is an actual task and can be used to adjust the dispatcher routing and the plan for the formation of single-group and group freight trains.