Classification and Determining Factors of Future Work Aspirations among Middle-aged and Older Workers

This study focuses on categorizing the perceptions of middle-aged and older workers regarding their future work aspirations before and after retirement, from the perspectives of future time and capital accumulation, and identifying the determinants of these potential categories. To achieve this, data from the 2024 Economic Activity Population Survey's elderly supplementary survey was utilized to conduct latent class analysis on middle-aged and older wage workers aged 55-69 before and after mandatory retirement. The results revealed that the future work aspirations of middle-aged and older workers were classified into four latent types based on three criteria: motivation for work, desired wage level, and desired working age. First, the “Health-Permitted Upper-Middle Income Hope Type” second, the “Livelihood-Purpose Upper Income Hope Type” third, the “Livelihood/Social Demand 65-70 Years Hope Type” and fourth, the “Health/Social Demand Lower Income Hope Type” were identified. Overall, the proportion of future work preferences not driven by livelihood purposes accounted for more than half, suggesting that the work participation motives of middle-aged and older adults are diversifying beyond livelihood maintenance to include self-realization and social participation. Furthermore, a multinomial logistic regression analysis was conducted to analyze the determinants of each type. The results showed that personal characteristics such as gender, generation, education level, and marital status, as well as career characteristics such as the length of service at the longest serving employment, retirement timing, occupation, and reason for retirement, significantly explained the future employment preference types. In particular, long-term tenure experience, career experience in managerial or professional occupations, and voluntary retirement were closely related to non-livelihood-driven employment aspirations. On the other hand, experience in manual labor occupations and involuntary retirement were associated with livelihood-driven employment aspirations. This study aimed to provide practical insights for expanding labor market participation and designing policies for the middle-aged and older workforce by conducting a multidimensional analysis of their future employment preferences from the perspectives of individual perceptions of future time and career accumulation.