Bayesian-based probabilistic decline curve analysis study in unconventional reservoirs

The capacity of oil and gas producers to produce from low-permeability shale formations has been greatly expanded due to the rapid development of horizontal drilling and hydraulic fracturing technology 1. Thus, estimating the reserves and predicting the production trends of these unconventional reservoirs is of paramount importance. To do so, decline curve analysis is the easiest method from a practical point of view. It is as simple as extrapolating past production trends to estimate the reserves and forecast the production 2.