Bayesian-based probabilistic decline curve analysis study in unconventional reservoirs

The capacity of oil and gas producers to produce from low-permeability shale formations has been greatly expanded due to the rapid development of horizontal drilling and hydraulic fracturing technology [1]. Thus, estimating the reserves and predicting the production trends of these unconventional reservoirs is of paramount importance. To do so, decline curve analysis is the easiest method from a practical point of view. It is as simple as extrapolating past production trends to estimate the reserves and forecast the production [2].