Structural Transformations of the Russian Agricultural Sector: A Reproductive Model of Sustainable Development in the Context of Macroeconomic Instability

The article examines the structural transformations of the Russian agricultural sector in 2015-2024 through the prism of the reproductive model of sustainable development in the context of macroeconomic instability. The relevance of the study is due to the increasing role of agriculture as a system-forming element of food security, spatial stability and adaptation of the national economy to external and internal shocks. The aim of the work is to identify patterns of change in the resource base, industry specialization, institutional structure and sustainability factors of the Russian agricultural sector. The methodological basis consists of reproductive, structural-sectoral, institutional and macroeconomic approaches. The empirical base includes official statistical data on agriculture in Russia for 2015-2024. The results of the study show that the agricultural sector is developing along the trajectory of a capital-intensive structural transformation, in which a reduction in the labor force is combined with an increase in investment, a change in the structure of fixed assets, an increased role for agricultural organizations and the farming sector, as well as the redistribution of resources in favor of more technologically advanced and export-oriented segments. It is proved that the sustainability of the agricultural sector has a two-circuit character: crop production generates export potential and high profitability, but retains increased volatility, while animal husbandry performs a stabilizing function. An asymmetric structure of food sustainability has been identified, manifested in a combination of high self-sufficiency in export-significant commodity groups and the persistence of structural restrictions on certain types of food. The scientific novelty of the article lies in the substantiation of the Russian agricultural sector as a system moving towards a new reproductive model of sustainable development, in which sustainability is determined by the interaction of structural, institutional, investment and food factors. The practical significance of the results is related to the possibility of their use in improving differentiated agricultural policy in the context of macroeconomic instability.