Unclosed Causal Inference

Unclosed Causal Inference (UCI) is a formal theoretical framework for modelling the structural dynamics that arise when a system receives a real perturbation whose causal origin cannot be assigned within its available causal ontology. The framework distinguishes ordinary uncertainty from unclosed causal inference, where candidate sources are absent or belong to ontologically incompatible causal classes. Under operational continuity constraints, the system is forced to assign a pseudo-source, not because it is the most probable cause, but because it minimises a composite closure cost involving cognitive, social, temporal, and identity components. Once action is taken on the pseudo-source, a ratchet mechanism increases the cost of correction through accumulated damage, potentially generating recursive UCI dynamics, cover-up formation, and a bifurcation between dissolution and crystallisation.UCI is conceptually complementary to Relational Manifold Dynamics (RMD): while RMD models the structural deformation of relational systems before behavioural collapse, UCI models the forced production and defence of causal attribution when a system cannot locate the origin of a perturbation. Together, the two frameworks offer a broader structural vocabulary for analysing relational breakdown, false attribution persistence, scapegoating, conspiracy formation, institutional cover-ups, and the production of necessary falsehood.