Geopolitical Tensions and the Energy Stock Market: Examining Oil Price Volatility and U.S. Energy Stock Responses

This study examines how crude oil price volatility affects the price returns of leading energy companies in the U.S. stock market during two major geopolitical events: the 2014–2017 OPEC–Russia oil price war and the ongoing Russia–Ukraine war. Using the Bai-Perron structural break test, the study identifies critical turning points in oil price dynamics, fol- lowed by ARMA-EGARCH modeling to analyze volatility patterns during periods of crisis. The study finds strong asymmetries in oil price volatility, with negative shocks amplifying market uncertainty, particularly during crisis peaks. Furthermore, this study estimates a vector autoregressive (VAR) model to identify the relationship between oil price shocks and firm-level stock returns across upstream, integrated, and downstream oil and gas companies. The findings show that upstream firms exhibit stronger and more persistent reactions to oil price shocks, while integrated and downstream firms display quicker but more transient responses, returning to baseline levels in a shorter time frame. Notably, the Russia–Ukraine war triggered more synchronized and significant stock price reactions across firms, but these effects were shorter-lived compared to the earlier oil price war. These insights deepen our understanding of the oil-stock nexus and the behavior of stock prices in periods of height- ened geopolitical risks.