ECDF-Stabilized Sentinel-1 InSAR Coherence for Verification-Oriented Heritage Monitoring: A TabICLv2-SHAP and Three-Horizon DEMATEL Architecture

Cultural-heritage monitoring increasingly requires evidence-to-decision architecture capable of moving beyond descriptive coherence maps toward analytically transparent and verification-oriented decision support. Within this evidential setting, the analysis presents a case-study-demonstrated architecture for multi-epoch Sentinel-1 interferometric synthetic aperture radar (InSAR) coherence analysis in a heritage-sensitive landscape, designed to transform heterogeneous pairwise outputs into an interpretable, cross-epoch comparable, sector-level evidence register. Quantitatively, the architecture is demonstrated on 12 short-baseline intervals and 1193 valid fixed-support points; it is organized around four linked operations: (i) reliability-filtered coherence stabilization through fixed-support sampling, temporal point-history construction, ECDF-based rank alignment, and ordinal recoding; (ii) separation of the continuous radar response from the upstream four-state ordinal monitoring-support register before model fitting; (iii) leakage-controlled TabICLv2 learning on RAW/stabilized radar-meteorological descriptors, excluding SHAP-derived, prediction-derived, probability-derived, feature-importance-derived, and global mean-coherence proxy variables; and (iv) post hoc SHAP attribution transferred to a three-horizon DEMATEL prioritization register. Under the retained TabICLv2 configuration, holdout evaluation showed strong ordinal separability: accuracy = 0.9799, balanced accuracy = 0.9798, macro-F1 = 0.9798, and Cohen’s kappa = 0.9699. To delimit the performance claim, the corresponding holdout confusion matrix contained three observed ordinal labels after filtering and split construction; support was balanced across State 0, State 1, and State 2. At the decision-transfer stage, the SHAP-informed DEMATEL synthesis distinguished three prioritization regimes: an immediate coherence-led H1 structure, a seasonal hydro-meteorological amplification regime in H2, and a strategic coherence-selective prioritization structure in H3. The study is framed as a methodological demonstration for persistence-aware, verification-oriented heritage monitoring, not as field validation, archeological confirmation, structural diagnosis, or causal physical inference.