Urban Air Quality Management: PM2.5 Hourly Forecasting with POA–VMD and LSTM

The accurate and effective prediction of PM2.5 concentrations is crucial for mitigating air pollution, improving environmental quality, and safeguarding public health. To address the challenge of strong temporal correlations in PM2.5 concentration forecasting, this paper proposes a novel hybrid model that integrates the Particle Optimization Algorithm (POA) and Variational Mode Decomposition (VMD) with the Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) network. First, POA is employed to optimize VMD by adaptively determining the optimal parameter combination [k, α], enabling the decomposition of the original PM2.5 time series into subcomponents while reducing data noise. Subsequently, an LSTM model is constructed to predict each subcomponent individually, and the predictions are aggregated to derive hourly PM2.5 concentration forecasts. Empirical analysis using datasets from Beijing, Tianjin, and Tangshan demonstrates the following key findings: (1) LSTM outperforms traditional machine learning models in time series forecasting. (2) The proposed model exhibits superior effectiveness and robustness, achieving optimal performance metrics (e.g., MAE: 0.7183, RMSE: 0.8807, MAPE: 4.01%, R2: 99.78%) in comparative experiments, as exemplified by the Beijing dataset. (3) The integration of POA with serial decomposition techniques effectively handles highly volatile and nonlinear data. This model provides a novel and reliable tool for PM2.5 concentration prediction, offering significant benefits for governmental decision-making and public awareness.