Outdoor Ice Rinks in Ontario, Canada – A Model for Ice Water Equivalent and Operational Duration to Evaluate Changing Climate

Outdoor ice rinks have long been a staple for inexpensive exercise and entertainment in cold environments. However, the possible deterioration of or impact on outdoor ice rinks from a changing climate is poorly understood due to no or little monitoring data of such facilities. To investigate long-term changes in ice rinks over recent decades, an energy-balance-based ice rink model (with three versions considering precipitation and melt) was applied to a simulated ice rink for two representative area – Dorset of south-central Ontario and Experimental Lakes Area (ELA) of northwestern Ontario, Canada. The model was calibrated and tested using one year ice rink data (since limited data are available) and applied to a 40-year period starting in 1978 to reproduce the dates of rink-on and rink-off, rink duration in a season, and ice-water-equivalent under daily climate inputs, and to illustrate any changing trend in these variables, i.e., the ice rink responses to changed climate. Results showed no clear trend in any ice rink features over four decades, attributed to winter temperature that did not increase substantially (a weak driver), no change in rain-on-ice and snowfall-on-rink, and reduced wind speed (possibly slowing ice melting). This is the first trial of a physically-based rink model to evaluate outdoor ice rinks. More in-situ monitoring is necessary.