Assessment of Correlation between Sea Ice Fractures and Meteorological Conditions in Tuktoyaktuk

Landfast sea ice is a crucial component of the Arctic ecosystem and holds significant cultural importance for indigenous communities in the Canadian Arctic. They rely on it for hunting, navigation, and maintaining connections between communities. As a climate indicator, landfast sea ice plays a key role in heat exchange between the ocean and the atmosphere, serves as a buffer against storms and coastal erosion, and impacts local environmental stability. However, the Arctic is experiencing rapid warming, which is leading to a reduction in the extent, thickness, and strength of sea ice. This trend increases the vulnerability of communities dependent on landfast ice to severe environmental events. This study focuses on the community of Tuktoyaktuk in the Northwest Territories, Canada, where landfast sea ice has been observed to fracture more frequently in the winter season. Using satellite-based Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR) and meteorological data, this research identifies that changing wind directions, particularly strong western and north-western winds, are significant factors contributing to the displacement of ice from the shore. Observations reveal a growing frequency of ice fracture events from 3 to 13 fracture counts from 2016–2017 to 2022–2023, coinciding with an increase in the occurrence of strong winds along the Tuktoyaktuk coast. The study aims to assess the likelihood of landfast sea ice fracturing under specific wind conditions, providing insights into the impact of climatic changes on the stability of ice in this region.