Breaking the Spiral of Silence? Investigating the Influence of Opinion Reversal Events on Opinion Expression on Social Media

This study uses a large-scale data set of tweets related to Abe throughout 2022and employs advanced natural language processing techniques to investigate theimpact of opinion reversal events on opinion expression. Specifically, we focus onthe event of Abe’s assassination, finding that there was a significant shift in theopinion climate in the immediate period following the event, followed by a partialrebound. Consistent with the core assumption of the spiral of silence theory, theanalysis shows that the overall positive opinion climate toward Abe after the eventprompted his supporters to express their views more actively, while those with anegative stance became relatively silent. However, the differences in expressionpatterns gradually decreased over time and did not necessarily result in a sustainedspiral of silence process and a long-term reversal of public opinion. These empiricalfindings offer important implications for understanding how the spiral of silencetheory applies to opinion expression and public opinion dynamics on social media.