Effect of Leadership Commitment (Normative Commitment, Continuance Commitment, and Affective Commitment) on ECE Policy Implementation in Somaliland Public Preschools

Abstract This study offers a quantitative analysis of the effect of leadership commitment on the implementation of Somaliland's 2020 Early Childhood Education (ECE) policy. While policy adoption is a critical first step for fragile states, the translation of policy into practice is contingent upon the will of those tasked with its execution. The successful implementation of Early Childhood Education (ECE) policy in fragile, post-conflict contexts is critically dependent on the dedication of its leaders. This study quantitatively investigates the hierarchical influence of leadership commitment on ECE policy implementation in Somaliland. Utilizing a census-based survey of 129 stakeholders from all 35 public preschools, this research deconstructs leadership commitment into Normative (duty-based), Affective (passion-based), and Continuance (cost-based) dimensions. A machine learning-informed model comparison, necessitated by violations of classical regression assumptions, identified Quantile Regression as the most robust analytical framework (MAPE = 14.19%). The final model (Pseudo R² = 0.731) revealed a definitive hierarchy of influence. Normative Commitment emerged as the paramount predictor (β = 2.22), its impact more than double that of Affective (β = 1.07) and Continuance (β = 1.08) commitment. This finding challenges leadership models that prioritize charismatic or emotional leadership, suggesting that in resource-scarce environments, a leader’s internalized sense of professional duty is the most critical driver of policy success. The study provides a granular, evidence-based roadmap for leadership selection and development, crucial for translating policy into tangible educational outcomes.