Warke (Ensete ventricosum) Intervention on Rainfall-Runoff and Prediction of Its Potential Flood Regulation

Abstract Sub-basin eco-hydrological interventions are critical for regulating rainfall intensity and mitigating flood-related water damage through enhanced ecosystem services. In this context, vegetation-driven processes of canopy interception (storage) and stemflow-flux play a pivotal role in altering rainfall-runoff dynamics. In Ethiopia’s Upper Part Awash River Basin, seasonal rainfall frequently triggers destructive floods, necessitating nature-based solutions. This study proposes the Warke plant (Ensete ventricosum) as a novel framework for flood regulation (impacts through flow-flux intensity and surface feeding area), leveraging its unique eco-hydrological traits. The HEC-HMS was employed to develop direct runoff from its hydrological model, while machine learning algorithms (R packages) used for regression and prediction analysis of flow dynamics. The multiple R-squared value of targeted sub-basin, 0.95 confirmed robust strong agreement between the datasets. The prediction analysis reveal that expanding Warke plantations reduced direct runoff depth for flow intensity factors (ψ <1) scenario. The plant’s capacity to store rainwater in its broad leaves, pseudo-stems and enhance soil infiltration, thereby regulating peak flows and mitigating flood damage. Integrating this process significantly improves eco-hydrological resilience.