Wintertime Arctic Oscillation Train in Summer and Autumn Climate of South-Eastern Europe

Abstract Southeastern Europe, particularly the western Dry Land Belt (DLB) of Northern Eurasia, is highly sensitive to hydroclimatic variability due to irregular precipitation and water scarcity. This study investigates the concurrent and lagged effects of the January–March Arctic Oscillation (JFM AO) on precipitation and temperature in this agriculturally critical region. Using 44 years (1979–2022) of monthly data, we performed statistical analyses to assess the links between JFM AO phases and hydroclimate anomalies. Winters of the positive (negative) AO phase are associated with reduced (increased) precipitation, higher (lower) temperatures, reduced (increased) snow cover, and drier (wetter) soil. Interesting is that with no signal in April, these hydroclimatic contrasts re-emerge in summer (May–August), when convective rainfall dominates, and autumn (November). The signal re-emergence contrasts to Northern Europe, where JFM AO lagged influence is confined to spring. We propose a mechanism explaining the wintertime AO influence on summer precipitation in the DLB via soil moisture and feedbacks between water cycle components. Also interesting is that the JFM AO imprints in annual precipitation and temperatures. These findings enhance understanding of JFM AO impact on warm season hydroclimate variability, and have implications for seasonal prediction and drought risk management in Southeastern Europe.