Vulnerabilidades macroeconómicas ante la transición baja en carbono para Colombia

The transition to a low-carbon entails profound significant structural transformations, particularly the scaling down or transformation of high-emission sectors and the advancement of cleaner industries. This process exposes several macroeconomic vulnerabilities. This analysis focuses on three key areas: First, Colombia’s external sector vulnerability is substantial, primarily due to the heavy reliance on extractive industries. Second, although the fiscal sector’s vulnerability is comparatively lower, it increases with greater governmental efforts to compensate for reduced investment resulting from decreased royalties. Third, the country’s high rate of labor informality limits the economy's capacity to absorb employment shocks arising from the transition.