Analyzing Forest Leisure and Recreation Consumption Patterns Using Deep and Machine Learning

Globally, forest leisure and recreation (FLR) activities are widely recognized not only for their environmental and social benefits but also for their economic contributions. To better understand these economic contributions, it is vital to examine how the regional economic levels of customers vary when consuming FLR. This study aimed to empirically examine whether the regional economic level of residents (i.e., gross regional domestic product; GRDP) is classifiable using FLR expenditure data, and to interpret which variables contribute to its classification. We acquired anonymized credit card transaction data on residents of two regions with different GRDP levels. The data were preprocessed by identifying FLR-related industries and extracting key spending features for classification analysis. Five classification models (e.g., deep neural network (DNN), random forest, extreme gradient boosting, support vector machine, and logistic regression) were applied. Among the models, the DNN model presented the best performance (overall accuracy = 0.73; area under the curve (AUC) = 0.82). SHAP analysis showed that the “FLR industry” variable was most influential in differentiating GRDP levels across all the models. These findings demonstrate that FLR consumption patterns may vary and are interpretable by economic levels, providing an empirical framework for designing regional economic policies.