Given the complementary nature of Sino-Russian natural gas trade and the deepening political mutual trust between the two nations, exploring their trade potential holds significant importance for building China's natural gas supply security system. To assess the bilateral natural gas trade potential under China's "dual carbon" goals, this study employs a stochastic frontier gravity model to analyze panel data from China's 18 natural gas suppliers during 2012–2021. Innovatively incorporating the "dual carbon" targets into the analytical framework, the research develops a novel method for measuring environmental policy intensity based on grounded theory and social network analysis. Furthermore, it introduces multiple new explanatory variables beyond existing literature to optimize the model specification and enhance the accuracy of trade potential measurements. The empirical results demonstrate that among China's 18 major natural gas suppliers, Russia exhibits the highest trade potential. Moreover, the implementation of "dual carbon" policies presents new opportunities for expanding Sino-Russian natural gas trade. Based on these findings, this paper proposes policy recommendations emphasizing the need to leverage bilateral relations to systematically unlock trade potential, accelerate natural gas cooperation projects, and improve pricing mechanisms.
Zhu et al. (Thu,) studied this question.