Enhancing Pipeline Integrity Management: Predictive Analytics and Probabilistic Applied Load Modeling for Water Transmission Networks

TAQA Transmission, located in the United Arab Emirates (UAE) and overseeing a 3,600-km network of water transmission pipelines primarily made of Ductile Iron (DI) and Carbon Steel (CS), initiated a comprehensive pipeline integrity management strategy. The project aims to optimize asset management by creating a robust framework that can be used during the operation and management of its linear system as well as enhance its resiliency framework. While the overall framework included various components, this paper focuses on the predictive analytics and probabilistic applied load modeling used to develop survivor curves for metallic transmission mains. The framework utilized the Cross-Industry Standard Process for Data Mining (CRISP-DM) to create a wall thickness reduction model, predicting the thinning of DI and CS pipelines in the system. Input data, including ultrasonic measurements recently collected by the asset owner, were used to develop the hazard function. Additionally, a probabilistic applied load modeling approach was implemented to estimate the residual factor of safety for any given year of analysis, determining the likelihood of pipeline failure. This modeling considered internal and external pressures, integrated with the predictive wall thickness model. A computerized algorithm ran the analysis, using predicted thickness data to plot survivor curves based on trained data, existing materials, pipeline diameters, and varying operating pressures. Furthermore, an Excel-based tool was developed, allowing easy assessment of the residual factor of safety, remaining wall thickness, and condition grading, thereby assisting in future condition assessment projects. This project benefits the water pipeline asset management industry by offering a practical predictive modeling framework and improved tools that enhance maintenance and renewal planning. This approach enhances pipeline management reliability and efficiency, enhances linear assets resiliency, and extends the service life of critical water transmission infrastructure. The methodology and tools developed can serve as an initiative for other water utilities aiming to enhance their asset management.