Long-term Estimate of the Number of Doctors in Argentina

Background: Knowledge of the number of doctors qualified to practice medicine and its numerical relation with the population to care has strategic importance in order to coordinate healthcare workforce training. To date, there is no information about the ex-pected growth trend of the number of doctors in Argentina for the near future.Objective: The aim of this study was to estimate the progress of the number of doctors in Argentina over a 20-year period and to relate it, through a dynamic simulation model involving different scenarios, with the number of inhabitants as a demand index.Methods: A conceptual model was designed to represent the growth of the number of doctors and its relationship with the number of inhabitants. The model was developed in 2007 and prospectively validated with real data in 2014. Results: The estimation up to 2027 revealed 27% increase in the number of doctors, based on the historical trend of university gradu-ates. The prospective validation at 7 years after simulation initiation showed model underestimation of 13.4%, possibly due to the incorporation of more foreign doctors.Conclusions: The simulation of different scenarios allowed speculating on strategies to plan the introduction of new doctors to the healthcare system and the admission policies at medical schools, in order to accommodate the current number of professionals according to the country’s human development index. The model also specified the necessary redistribution of doctors to reduce inequity between provinces.