Seismogenic Potential of Hydraulic Fracturing in the South Montney Play, Northeast British Columbia: A Seismogenic Index Approach

Understanding the seismogenic potential of fluid injection, such as hydraulic fracturing (HF), is essential for the assessment of seismic hazards of unconventional reservoirs. This study integrates statistical and seismotectonic analyses to characterize induced seismicity and quantify its potential impact associated with the South Montney Play. A comprehensive earthquake catalog, combined with detailed HF operation records, is analyzed using density-based spatial clustering and frequency–magnitude distributions. The results indicate that seismicity is predominantly associated with HF targeting the Lower-Middle Montney (LMM) formation, which accounts for more than 90% of the induced events. The classic Gutenberg–Richter relation and the lower-bound approach were employed to analyze the spatial variations of the b-value, revealing significant variability ranging from approximately 0.5 to 2.5. The lowest b-values, concentrated in LMM-associated clusters, suggest an elevated probability of larger-magnitude events. A significant negative correlation is observed between b-values and the maximum magnitudes of induced earthquake clusters, reinforcing the importance of b-value in hazard forecasting. The seismogenic index further quantifies the susceptibility of different clusters to induced seismicity, providing a statistical basis for earthquake forecasting models. The strong agreement between observed and forecasted seismicity validates the applicability of statistical models derived from seismogenic index to assess the seismic hazard induced by HF. These findings establish a robust framework for seismic risk mitigation, emphasizing the importance of statistical seismology in improving hazard forecasting and regulatory decision-making in unconventional resource development.