Use of Health Information Systems for Pandemic Prevention: Applying a Nowcasting Epidemiologic Framework (Preprint)

BACKGROUND Pandemics represent one of the most complex challenges for global public health in the 21st century. The accelerated spread of emerging infectious diseases, such as COVID-19, has exposed critical limitations in traditional surveillance systems, often affected by delays in data collection and reporting. In this context, health information systems (HISs) have emerged as key tools for epidemiological surveillance, real- time data management, and timely decision-making. Emerging technologies such as nowcasting—which estimate the current state of an epidemic by adjusting for reporting delays—offer new opportunities to prevent and control outbreaks before they become pandemics OBJECTIVE To analyze the strategic use of HISs in pandemic prevention, focusing on the application of the nowcasting approach and proposing an adaptive framework for its implementation in public health systems of developing countries. METHODS A methodological and documentary analysis was conducted based on the study by Feaster et al² published in the Online Journal of Public Health Informatics, which implemented Bayesian models to monitor the 2022 mpox outbreak in New York City in real time. This article served as a core reference to identify the key components of nowcasting and evaluate its applicability in regions with lower digital infrastructure, such as Latin America. Additionally, a literature review was carried out using indexed databases (PubMed, Scopus, DOAJ) focused on digital surveillance, HISs, and predictive technologies in public health. RESULTS The analyzed model demonstrated strong capabilities for real-time outbreak forecasting, even in the presence of data lags. The results indicate that nowcasting can be effectively integrated into national surveillance systems with appropriate contextual adaptations. Five critical pillars for its implementation were identified: data interoperability, technical capacity-building, multisectoral integration, digital governance, and financial sustainability. CONCLUSIONS HISs, enhanced through approaches such as epidemiological nowcasting, are essential tools for anticipating and mitigating pandemics. Their adoption requires a strategic vision focused on digitalization, predictive analytics, and data-driven response. Promoting their implementation in developing countries can significantly improve public health resilience to future global threats. CLINICALTRIAL