Risk-informed multi-criteria assessment of dam reservoirs for floating photovoltaic farms in arid and semi-arid regions

Floating Photovoltaic (FPV) farms have emerged as a rapidly advancing solar powertechnology, driven by land-use constraints and increasing global demand forsustainable energy solutions. This system has several advantages over land-basedones in terms of energy generation, water and land conservation, and environmentalimpacts. This study develops a risk-oriented decision-making framework to prioritizedams in Khorasan Razavi, Iran, for implementing FPV systems. To this end, theresearch employs the Fuzzy Analytic Hierarchy Process (FAHP) combined withrisk attitudes related to multi-criteria satisfaction, to rank the selected dams. Inaddition, PVsyst software and the simplified Penman equation are used to analyzethe potential for energy generation and evaporation reduction on these prioritizeddams. In this study, three PV deployment scenarios are examined: floating PVarrays covering 1% and 10% of the reservoir’s surface area and a fixed 7 MW PVsystem as the feasible capacity under site-specific constraints. To guide the optimaldeployment of FPV systems, this study introduces a point-based ranking frameworkthat incorporates multiple risk perspectives—ranging from fully risk-averse to fullyrisk-prone scenarios. While results show consistency between the multi-criteriarankings and energy simulation outputs for several dams, notable discrepancies—such as Tabarak’s high risk-based rank despite its lower energy output and limitedevaporation reduction—highlight the importance of using both approachesin tandem. The proposed framework contributes to a more comprehensiveunderstanding of site suitability, balancing technical performance with broadercontextual and stakeholder considerations.