Techno-Economic Modelling of Liquid Hydrogen Tankers: Capex, Opex, Scale Economies, and Emission Trade-Offs

Abstract As hydrogen emerges as a key vector in future energy transitions, liquid hydrogen (LH₂) shipping is poised to play a pivotal role in enabling long-distance, low-carbon hydrogen trade. However, the lack of scalable design frameworks for dedicated LH₂ tankers remains a critical barrier to cost-effective global hydrogen shipping. This study presents an open-source, weight-based techno-economic model to evaluate scale economies in LH₂ marine shipping. The model computes ship Capex and Opex costs across four scalable ships, 70,000 m³ to 420,000 m³, and is applied to routes: Karratha and Darwin (Australia) to Singapore (~ 2500 NM), Tokyo (~ 4500 NM), and Rotterdam (~ 10,850 NM) to show the model’s efficacy for global routes. Results reveal that increasing ship capacity reduces the levelized cost of transport (LCOT) by up to 55%, reaching ~ USD 1.14/kg LH₂ for long-haul routes (≥ 10,000 NM) and USD 0.272/kg LH₂ for short routes ( ≤ 2500 NM). A Monte Carlo sensitivity analysis identifies voyage distance, boil-off gas rate, fuel consumption, and fuel price as primary LCOT drivers. While larger vessels incur higher absolute CO₂ emissions, they offer lower emissions per kilogram of hydrogen delivered, suggesting a carbon efficiency trade-off with scale. The model offers a flexible tool for evaluating LH₂ shipping economics and environmental impacts, supporting global hydrogen infrastructure planning and policy design in emerging hydrogen economies.