The Effect of Global Stock Index, Fed Rate, and Macroeconomic Variables on CSPI 2006m1-2024m12

The Composite Stock Price Index (CSPI) describes the overall performance of stocks in the stock market over time. CSPI for the period 2006M1 to 2024M12 shows an increasing trend. This study aims to analyze and test the DJIA, SSEC, STI, Fed rate, BI rate, IDR/USD exchange rate, and inflation on the CSPI from 2006M1 to 2024M12. The method used is ARDL (Autoregressive Distributed Lag) to determine the short-term and long-term relationship and processed with the Eviews 12 program. This study uses secondary data in the form of time series data. The test results show that partially in the short term, only variable (1) SSEC has a positive effect is not significant; (2) STI has a significant positive effect; (3) the Fed interest rate has a significant positive effect. In the long term, the variables that influence are (1) DJIA has a positive effect insignificant; (2) SSEC has an adverse effect insignificant; (3) STI has a positive effect significant; (4) the Fed interest rate has an adverse effect insignificant; (5) BI Rate has an adverse effect insignificant; (6) IDR/USD exchange rate has an adverse effect significant; (7) inflation has a negative effect insignificant.