Climate change poses significant threats to urban tree health and survival worldwide. This study evaluates climate suitability risks for 12 common tree species in Wuhan, a Chinese metropolis facing escalating climate challenges. We analyzed risk dynamics and interspecific variations across three periods, the baseline (1981–2022), near future (2023–2050), and distant future (2051–2100), quantifying climate risk as differences between local climate conditions and species’ climatic niches. We further examined how species’ geographic distribution and functional traits influence these climate risks. The results revealed significant warming trends in Wuhan during the baseline period (p < 0.05), with projected increases in temperature and precipitation under future scenarios (p < 0.05). The most prominent risk factors included the precipitation of the driest month (PDM), annual mean temperature (AMT), and maximum temperature of the warmest month (MTWM), indicating intensifying drought–heat stress in this region. Among the studied species, Cedrus deodara (Roxb.) G. Don, Platanus acerifolia (Aiton) Willd., Metasequoia glyptostroboides Hu & W.C.Cheng, and Ginkgo biloba L. faced significantly higher hydrothermal risks (p < 0.05), whereas Koelreuteria bipinnata Franch. and Osmanthus fragrans (Thunb.) Lour. exhibited lower current risks but notable future risk increases (p < 0.05). Regarding the factors driving these interspecific variation patterns, the latitude of species’ distribution centroids showed significant negative correlations with the risk values of the minimum temperature of the coldest month (MTCM) (p < 0.05). Among functional traits, the wood density (WD) and xylem vulnerability threshold (P50) were negatively correlated with precipitation-related risks (p < 0.05), while the leaf dry matter content (LDMC) and specific leaf area (SLA) were positively associated with temperature-related risks (p < 0.05). These findings provide scientific foundations for developing climate-adaptive species selection and management strategies that enhance urban forest resilience under climate change in central China.
Zhu et al. (Thu,) studied this question.