The PLUM method improves ground motion prediction in earthquakes, suggesting a better early warning system for distant sites.
The Propagation of Local Undamped Motion (PLUM) method is a seismic early warning approach that directly predicts ground motion based on observed ground shaking. It can achieve good early warning effects in simultaneous multiple earthquakes and earthquakes with severe rupture zone expansion. The traditional PLUM method provides a relatively short effective early warning time. To further increase the early warning duration of PLUM, this paper proposes a PLUM method that considers the attenuation law of ground motion. Unlike the traditional PLUM method, which can only predict ground shaking for sites within a fixed radius, the new method can predict real-time ground motion for sites at greater distances based on the attenuation law of seismic intensity and issue early warning information to users. Finally, a retrospective simulation of the January 1, 2024, earthquake in the Noto Peninsula, Japan, is conducted.
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Li et al. (2025) studied this question.
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