Cycling and GHG Emissions: How Infrastructure Makes All the Difference

One practical approach to reduce GHG emissions is to shift from driving to modes with lower emissions, such as cycling. One key component of supporting cycling is the quality and quantity of cycling infrastructure. This study analyzes the relationship between the quality (or comfort) and quantity of bicycle infrastructure, the likelihood of cycling, and the emissions. The first objective of this study is to analyze the influence of various variables on cycling choice using an interpretable ensemble learning approach. Second, a scenario-based analysis is applied to examine the influence of various policy scenarios (related to cycling infrastructure) on the transportation life cycle GHG emissions. Using origin–destination survey data from Montreal and Laval, Canada, policy modelling results suggest that without current cycling infrastructure, cycling mode share would be 5.3% less, driving mode share would be 4% higher, and GHG emissions would be 10.2% higher among all trips of a reasonable cycling distance starting from home. Then, policy scenarios modelling for this subset of trips suggests that improving the quality of bikeways, increasing their quantity, and reducing the trip distances by 25% can reduce the GHG emissions by 3.9%, 6.6%, and 29.3%, and increase the number of cycling trips by 8.1%, 14%, and 24.4%, respectively.