Statistical analysis identifies failure trends in running gear of gondola cars, suggesting targeted maintenance strategies for improved reliability.
This article presents an in-depth statistical analysis of failure occurrences in the running gear of universal freight gondola cars operated by Ukrainian Railways. Drawing from a dataset of over 10,000 inspected gondola cars across eight models over the period 2021–2024, the study identifies key trends in fault distribution by model, type, and frequency. The focus is placed on typical failures such as spring fractures, wheel flange wear, axle fatigue, and overheating of journal bearings. A defect matrix is developed to cross-reference failure modes with specific wagon types. The analysis shows that models 12-9046 and 12-132 account for the highest number of failures, likely due to their wide deployment and specific design features. The study also reveals that cars with more than 25 years of service demonstrate significantly higher failure rates compared to newer models, indicating the importance of life-cycle-based diagnostics. Statistical tools such as classification grouping and Pearson’s chi-squared test were used to verify dependencies between wagon models and failure types. The results confirm a strong correlation, emphasizing the need for model-specific maintenance strategies. Furthermore, failure intensity was calculated for each wagon type, demonstrating that even newer designs with improved structures (e.g., models 12-1704-04 and 12- 296-01) are not immune to specific technical issues. The conclusions include recommendations for technical maintenance planning, highlighting the benefits of targeted diagnostics and predictive repair scheduling. The outcomes of this research may be applied to enhance operational safety, reduce downtime, and improve the economic efficiency of wagon maintenance. The study contributes to the broader field of rolling stock reliability engineering and supports the modernization of freight fleet management practices based on empirical data and statistical modeling.
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Shovkun et al. (2025) studied this question.
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