Autonomous Vehicles and Public Transit Incentives: A Case Study of Waymo's Pilot Transit Credit Program in the San Francisco Bay Area

This study evaluates the effectiveness of a pilot transit credit program launched by Waymo in the San Francisco Bay Area, which offered riders a $3 incentive to use an AV rideshare service in conjunction with nearby public transit stations. Using a mixed-methods approach, including structured surveys and qualitative interviews, we explore how the incentive influenced travel behavior, mode substitution, and public transit connectivity. Results indicate that 69% of participants connected to transit, while 50% of these riders would have otherwise used privately paid rideshare and 6% would have used their private vehicle, and another 6% would have walked or cycled. The remaining 38% of participants would have used transit to reach the public transit station. The study offers critical insights for transit agencies and mobility providers aiming to design integrated AV-transit systems that serve the public good. While there is a risk of misallocating funds to individuals already willing and able to pay for rideshare services, these findings underscore that targeted subsidies can yield meaningful reductions in private vehicle use and promote multimodal travel.