Is climate gentrification happening? Evidence from the effect of elevation and flooding risks on housing price dynamics in South Florida

Purpose Using housing price and price appreciation as a proxy for gentrification, the purpose of this study is to explore whether climate gentrification exists in South Florida when new or redevelopment projects target areas with higher elevation and/or lower flooding risks. Design/methodology/approach Existing literature lacks longitudinal comparisons to isolate the effect of climate change on the property market. This study uses spatial mapping and six hedonic pricing models to measure how elevation and flooding risks are associated with housing prices and price appreciation in 2016 and 2021, controlling for housing attributes, neighborhood demographic characteristics, changes and the interaction terms between elevation/flooding and neighborhood variables. Findings The findings of this study reveal that elevation and flooding risks influence housing transaction prices differently in different periods, indicating the potential impact of the presence versus absence of hurricanes on short-term market corrections. When exploring the repeat sales data, the overall finding is that climate gentrification, manifested as climate retreat, may happen because higher elevation areas have seen higher housing price appreciation. Flooding risks have a more profound impact because of their more complex confounding effects with insurance policies and demographic and property characteristics. Originality/value Addressing a research gap and a relatively new concept (climate gentrification), the findings from this study will offer valuable insights for policymakers to develop targeted strategies for climate adaptation, housing stabilization and equitable urban development.