Impacts of Sea Level Rise and Urbanization on Ecological Source of the Greater Bay Area

This study focuses on the Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area and employs a multi-model coupling method of InVEST-Bathtub-GeoSOS-FLUS to predict and analyze the impacts of sea level rise and rapid urbanization on ecological source areas by the year 2100. The InVEST model is used to delineate areas with higher habitat quality scores as ecological source areas. The Bathtub inundation model predicts the impact ranges under three different sea level rise scenarios by 2100. The FLUS model simulates the land-use pattern of the Greater Bay Area in 2100. Finally, the raster calculator is used to conduct overlay analysis and accurately calculate the impact on ecological source areas under the combined effects of sea level rise and urban expansion. The results show that by 2100, the proportion of cultivated land in the Greater Bay Area is expected to decrease from 24.95% to 10.55%, while the proportion of urban land will increase from 7.69% to 26.84%. Under the dual impacts of the three sea level rise scenarios and urbanization, the affected areas of ecological source areas will reach 109.88 km2, 125.05 km2, and 255.10 km2, respectively. This study provides an important basis and decision-making support for the sustainable planning and scientific management of ecological source areas in the Greater Bay Area.