The Keynesian theory of national income asserts that an increase in exports will enhance output performance significantly. Standing on this premise, this study seeks to validate the reality of export-led growth hypothesis in Nigeria by disaggregating export into oil and non-oil exports. Using Auto regressive distributed lag (ARDL) method to estimate time series data from 1981 to 2019. Empirical finding reveals evidence of export-led growth nexus for both the aggregated and disaggregated exports. Further results prove the existence of FDI-led growth nexus as well as saving-induced growth hypothesis. In contrast, import demonstrates a harmful relationship with economic growth. Thus, this study recommends an expansion of the export base of the country, particularly the non-oil sector, to enable her generate more foreign earnings. Domestic saving should be encouraged to improve the availability of investment funds for business expansion. A critical suggestion is made for the government to curtail importation especially for goods with domestic substitutes.
Joshua et al. (2025) studied this question.