How Vulnerable Living Conditions Drive School Dropout in Tanzania: A Causal Analysis with Moderating Factors

Abstract Dropout rates in Tanzanian secondary education hinder students from progressing to higher grades or completing the education cycle. This challenge undermines the government's efforts to ensure high completion rates, despite policies aimed at improving secondary education access and quality. This study examines the impact of vulnerable living environments on early school leaving in secondary education in Tanzania. The study analyses time series data on dropout rates from 2019 to 2022, assessing the influence of students' persistence in vulnerable environments on dropout trends. Using Generalised Least Squares (GLS) regression with a random effects model, the findings reveal that students living in vulnerable environments are more likely to drop out of school early. The issue is particularly pronounced in rural schools, which often face socioeconomic disadvantages. Also, the study finds that the severity of the problem intensifies with advancing school years, partly due to the dynamic nature of regional demographics. Based on these findings, the study recommends policy interventions, including revising school establishment policies, restructuring the fee-free education policy, enhancing healthcare services for students living in vulnerable environments, and encouraging low-income families to participate in income-generating activities reflecting their contexts.