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September 5, 2025Journal of Pensions Economics and FinanceOpen Access

Some intergenerational arithmetic to control public debt in the EU

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Authors

RBRoel BeetsmaMBMatthias BusseMLMartin Larch

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Overview

This analysis reveals how economic growth is linked to public debt sustainability in the EU, highlighting the impact of demographic factors like fertility and migration.

Key Points

  • Required economic growth rates increase significantly under low migration scenarios, impacting public debt sustainability.
  • The low-fertility scenario shows pronounced effects on economic growth over the long run, affecting debt trajectories in many EU countries.
  • Informed by projections from the European Commission's reports, this analysis aids policymakers in understanding demographic impacts.
  • Higher productivity growth emerges as a critical factor in mitigating debt consequences caused by demographic changes.

Cite This Study

Beetsma et al. (2025) studied this question.

synapsesocial.com/papers/68bb3a432b87ece8dc9555fbhttps://doi.org/10.1017/s1474747225100085
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