Border Disruptions and Food Security in Fragile Economies: Evidence from Afghanistan’s Trade Dependence on Iran and Pakistan

Abstract The challenge of food systems in Afghanistan is driven by its extreme reliance on trade across borders, making this region very sensitive to geopolitical conflicts and health-related emergencies. This paper will analyze the impact of the closure of borders with Iran and Pakistan on domestic food prices and composition of imports, its consequences on food security and economic sustainability in fragile states. There are two events examined: border closure in Pakistan due to COVID-19 in 2021 and the disruption of trade with Iran in 2025 caused by the Iran-Israel conflict. Based on the weekly market prices data, the results indicate that the 2025 disruption had steeper and more urgent costs of inflationary pressure (an increase in the costs of staple commodities in flour, rice, cooking oil, and diesel of more than 14 per cent), especially in the urban wells such as Kabul. It is also confirmed statistically (paired-sample t-tests, 95 percent significance) that the breakdown of trade has a measurable relationship with price volatility. These findings demonstrate that there is increased strategic dependence among Afghanistan and Iranian trade routes on the part of direct imports as well as regional transit. By framing these economic shocks in the bigger picture of sustainable development, the paper will address the literature on the subject of trade vulnerability and resilience building by providing a policy recommendation to enhance supply chain stability, improve food security, and minimize dependency risks in weak economies. JEL codes: E31, F14, Q18