A Comprehensive Risk Assessment Model for Gale Hazards on Railway Safety: A Case Study of China’s High-Speed Rail

Abstract The rapid expansion of high-speed rail (HSR) networks, particularly in China, has revolutionized national mobility while simultaneously increasing vulnerability to meteorological disasters. The extensive geographical coverage and diverse topography of these railways expose them to frequent extreme weather events, notably gales, resulting in operational disruptions and safety concerns. Current meteorological disaster prevention systems along railway routes demonstrate significant limitations, lacking precise risk assessment methodologies and accurate gale forecasting capabilities. This research addresses these challenges by developing an innovative and comprehensive risk assessment model for railway systems exposed to gale hazards. The study employs a three-pronged methodological approach, which transcends traditional single-factor analysis methods by incorporating a multi-dimensional analysis framework that systematically examines the intricate interplay among meteorological, geographical, and operational factors Empirical findings demonstrate that certain sections of China's HSR network, particularly those in Tibet and Qinghai, demonstrate heightened vulnerability to gales, with wind speeds frequently exceeding safe operating thresholds. The study identifies specific sections requiring enhanced preventive measures during high-risk periods, particularly from March to May, based on detailed temporal and spatial risk assessments. This research makes significant contributions to railway safety management by providing a dynamic, spatiotemporal assessment framework that integrates environmental, meteorological, and operational factors. The model's innovative approach to transforming complex hazard data into actionable insights represents a substantial advancement in railway disaster prevention, offering valuable tools for safety management and strategic planning in railway operations.