Growth Optimization Predicts Microbial Success in a Permafrost Thaw Experiment

Ongoing climate warming is thawing global permafrost, making vast pools of organic carbon available as microbial growth substrates. Uncertainty surrounding microbial successional dynamics limits our ability to parameterize the global-scale biogeochemical consequences of this thawing permafrost. We developed a genomic index of growth optimization to predict whether individual taxa increase or decrease in abundance during early thaw and validate our approach using incubation experiments from permafrost collected in Interior Alaska.