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September 5, 2025EconomicsOpen Access

Is the Stock Market A “Barometer” of the Economy? Based on South Africa Comprehensive Analysis

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Authors

JBJean-Claude BimenyimanaDMDong Mei-shengMJMomodou Lamin Jallow

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Overview

Analysis reveals long-term correlations between stock market prices and macroeconomic factors, suggesting implications for investors.

Key Points

  • Stock market prices are positively influenced by exchange rates, inflation, and the money supply, while trade rates have a negative impact.
  • Long-term correlations indicate a relationship between macroeconomic indicators and stock market performance from 2000 to 2023.
  • Using Johansen’s cointegration test and the VECM, this analysis examines the equilibrium relationship in stock market dynamics.
  • Granger causality tests show that macroeconomic variables influence stock market prices over both long and short term.

Cite This Study

Bimenyimana et al. (2025) studied this question.

synapsesocial.com/papers/68bb5f266d6d5674bcd030c6https://doi.org/10.2478/eoik-2025-0072
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Also Consider

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  1. 1Macroeconomic indicators and the Johannesburg Stock Exchange Financial 15 Index nexus in South Africa2026
  2. 2THE INFLUENCE OF GLOBALISATION AND MONETARY POLICY ON THE STOCK MARKET PERFORMANCE IN SOUTH AFRICA2026
  3. 3Identifying Macroeconomic Factors that Affect the Share Prices of JSE-Listed Firms2025
  4. 4Financial Markets and the Economic Development Index in South Africa: An Econometric Approach2026
  5. 5Macroeconomic Determinants of Stock Market Development: Evidence from a Panel of Ten Most Capitalized African Stock Markets2025