Automatic Lugano staging for risk stratification in lymphoma: a multicenter PET radiomics and machine learning study with survival analysis

Background Lymphoma staging plays a pivotal role in treatment planning and prognosis. Yet, it still relies on manual interpretation of PET/computed tomography (CT) images, which is time-consuming, subjective, and prone to variability. This study introduces a novel radiomics-based machine learning model for automated lymphoma staging to improve diagnostic accuracy and streamline clinical workflow. Methods Imaging data from 241 patients with histologically confirmed lymphoma were retrospectively analyzed. Radiomics features were extracted from segmented lymph nodes and extranodal lesions using PET/CT. Three machine learning classifiers (Logistic Regression, Random Forest, and XGBoost) were trained to distinguish between early-stage (I–II) and advanced-stage (III–IV) lymphoma. Model performance was evaluated using area under the curve (AUC), sensitivity, specificity, and accuracy together with survival analysis. Results Among the three models evaluated, the logistic regression model incorporating both nodal and extranodal radiomic features performed the best, achieving an AUC of 0.87 and a sensitivity of 0.88 in the external validation cohort. Including extranodal features significantly improved classification accuracy compared to nodal-only models (AUC: 0.87 vs. 0.75). Survival analysis revealed advanced-stage patients had a fourfold higher mortality risk (hazard ratio: 0.22–0.26, P = 0.0036) and a median survival of 84 months. Key radiomic features, such as tumor shape irregularity and heterogeneity, were strongly associated with staging, aligning with Lugano criteria for extranodal spread. Conclusion This study demonstrated the potential of PET radiomics features for automated Lugano staging. Adding extranodal features significantly improved staging accuracy and informed treatment.