Signal to Land: Correlation Between the Results of the Vote of Confidence in Vietnam's National Assembly and Evaluated Officials’ Career Outcomes

This paper examines the results of the vote of confidence in the National Assembly of Vietnam and their relationship with the subsequent career outcomes of evaluated officials. Although the vote of confidence has not led to the direct dismissal of any official to date, the findings suggest a notable correlation between confidence scores and career trajectories; however, this relationship appears to have diminished over time. Confidence scores have also shown a steady upward trend across successive votes. These patterns support the interpretation that the vote of confidence was originally intended by then–General Secretary Nguyễn Phú Trọng as a political tool to marginalize his political rival. As Trọng successfully consolidated power within the Party and the government, this function has shown a significant decline. More recently, the vote of confidence serves as a procedure to bolster the regime's democratic legitimacy, though it could potentially regain strategic utility in future elite contestation.