Management of dam discharge to reduce flood risk

Management of dams and reservoirs must be dictated by local conditions; in Mexico, extreme precipitation events cause severe flooding that socioeconomic factors can convert to a disaster. A theoretical method is proposed for the management of the controlled release of water to reduce the risk of flooding. The methodology involves climatological and hydrological analysis, seasonal climate forecasting, meteorological nowcast, climatology of extreme events, and hydrological projections of dam filling and basin response. It focuses mainly on three aspects: a) scheduled emptying time before the rain starts, b) closing the water release during the extreme precipitation event and c) maintaining a safety margin in the level of the reservoir to gain response time. Early weather predictions allow for early release of water, thereby effectively exploiting river capacity before precipitation begins. The proposed method offers a non-structural, and hence low-cost, option for dam management to mitigate flood risk.